Chapter 3

Covid-19 Situation Room

OUR PRESENT SITUATION

There are some difficult questions to be asked during this world epidemic. How do we determine the real death tolls? How do we restrict civil freedoms to protect communities? What comes first in governments’ minds - protecting health, or protecting the economy? And most importantly, is there is light at the end of the vaccine tunnel?
See where we are now (info correct as of 08/02/2021).

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The Planet Virus Project aims to share international expert opinions and insights with a global audience ranging from persons with a healthy interest in the Planet Virus-related topic to the hardcore experts. We are looking to share insights from organizations such as academic institutions, technology/process-driven companies, hospitals, pharmacies, governments and this from all over the globe, independent of the size of the organization. In addition and very importantly, we also want to hear the voice from individual persons such as covid-19 patients and their caregivers, nurses, physicians, pharmacists, surgeons,…

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OUR PRESENT SITUATION

World Epidemic

 

confirmed cases

 

Covid-19 deaths

Source WHO
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Where are Covid-19 virus infections rising or falling?
And how do governments respond to this?
See graphs and the situation per region

OUR PRESENT SITUATION

Excess deaths

321

Mexico

Mar - Feb - '21

182

United States

Mar - Mar - '21

412

Peru

Apr - Mar - '21

96

Sweden

Mar - Mar - '21

161

Belgium

Mar - Mar - '21

-5

South Korea

Mar - Jan - '21

Regional excess deaths per 100.00 people.

Source The Economist
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COVID-19 Mortality data is not perfect. The official statistics in many countries exclude victims who did not test positive for COVID-19.
See how excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths compare.

EXCESS DEATHS

TRACKING COVID-19 EXCESS DEATHS ACROSS COUNTRIES

In many parts of the world, official death tolls undercount the total number of fatalities. 

As COVID-19 has spread internationally, people have become grimly familiar with the death statistics their governments publish each day. Unfortunately, the total number of fatalities caused by the pandemic may be even higher - for several reasons.

Firstly, the official statistics in many countries exclude victims who did not test positive for coronavirus before dying - which can be a substantial majority in places with little capacity for testing.

Secondly, hospitals and civil registries may not process death certificates for several days, or even weeks, which creates lags in the data. And thirdly, the pandemic has made it harder for doctors to treat other conditions and people were discouraged from going to hospital.

This may have indirectly caused an increase in fatalities from diseases other than COVID-19.



One way to account for these methodological problems, is to use a simpler measure, known as “excess deaths”. Take the number of people who die from any cause in a given region and period and then compare it with a baseline from recent years. We have used statistical models to create our baselines by predicting the number of deaths each region would normally have recorded in 2020.

NOT A "CLASSIC" FLU SEASON

The chart below uses data from EuroMOMO, a network of epidemiologists who collect weekly reports on deaths from all causes in 24 European countries, covering 290m people.

These figures show that, compared with an historical baseline of 2009 - 2019, (even with Europe suffering some deadly flu seasons since 2016) the death toll this year from COVID-19 is far greater. Overall, the number of excess deaths across the continent since March is about 170,000. Though most of those victims have been older than 65, the number of deaths among Europeans aged 45-64 was 40% higher than usual in early April.

Below is a second set of charts, comparing the number of excess deaths and official COVID-19 deaths over time in each country. The lines on each chart represent excess deaths and the shaded area represents the number of fatalities officially attributed to coronavirus by the government.

Deviation from expected deaths %

RESPONSE LEVEL STRICTNESS

Belgium

April 18

China

April 18

Germany

April 18

Brazil

April 18

India

April 18

United Kingdom

April 18

United States

April 18

Australia

April 18
Source Oxford / Our World In Data
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How do governments react to a world epidemic?
Closures, bans, face masks and other restrictions.
See government response to the world epidemic.

RESPONSE LEVEL STRICTNESS

COVID-19: GOVERNMENT RESPONSE STRINGENCY INDEX, SEP 5, 2020

The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) systematically collects information on several different common policy responses governments have used to tackle the pandemic. It details 18 indicators, such as school closures and travel restrictions and now has data from more than 180 countries.

The nine metrics used to calculate the Government Stringency Index are: school closures; workplace closures; cancellation of public events; restrictions on public gatherings; closures of public transport; stay-at-home requirements; public information campaigns; restrictions on internal movements; and international travel controls.

THE RACE FOR A VACCINE

261

vaccines in progress

203

in preclinical development

58

in human trials
Source WHO
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Which teams of researchers are racing to develop a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine or treatment?
Watch how the race for a vaccine evolves.

THE RACE FOR A VACCINE

Vaccine and therapeutics

Vaccines typically require years of research and testing before reaching the clinic, but scientists are racing to produce a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine.  Work began in January 2020 with the deciphering of the SARS-CoV-2 genome.

The first vaccine safety trials in humans started in March and now 12 have reached the final stages of testing. Some of these trials will fail and others may end without a clear result. But a few vaccines may succeed in stimulating the immune system to produce effective antibodies against the virus. While these vaccines may potentially prevent infection, they cannot cure the disease. 

Vaccine tracker

Before a medicine comes onto the market, it has to go through 4 phases. From pre-clinical research to phase 4, when a drug can actually be sold. Most candidates are eliminated along the way.

Phase 3
Vaccine Prospects

It’s too soon to say which vaccines will have the most successful outcome, but here’s a look at the prospects that have ended phase 3:

PFIZER

Name
BNT162b2
Who:

One of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, based in New York, in collaboration with German biotech company BioNTech.

What:

This vaccine candidate relies on injecting snippets of mRNA into human cells to trigger an immune response. This vaccine requires two doses taken 21 days apart.

Status:

The Pfizer vaccine is currently being successfully distributed and administered in the UK, European Union and the US.

Moderna Therapeutics

Name
mRNA-1273 
Who:

A Massachusetts-based biotech company, in collaboration with National Institutes of Health.

What:

This vaccine candidate also relies on injecting snippets of a virus’s genetic material (mRNA) into human cells. It spurs the production of viral proteins that mimic the coronavirus, training the immune system to recognize its presence. Any successful vaccine based on this technology would be the first mRNA vaccine approved for human use. This vaccine requires two doses, four weeks apart. 

Status:

The vaccine has been proved to be 94.5 percent effective in preventing COVID-19 (including severe cases of the disease) without any significant safety concerns. On December 18th, 2020 Moderna achieved FDA approval.

Oxford University AND ASTRAZENECA 

Name
AZD1222
Who:

Oxford University together with AstraZeneca a British/Swedish multinational pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical company, with its headquarters in Cambridge, England.

What:

Positive high-level results from an interim analysis of clinical trials of AZD1222 in the UK and Brazil showed the vaccine was highly effective in preventing COVID-19 with no hospitalisations or severe cases of the disease reported in participants receiving the vaccine. There was a total of 131 COVID-19 cases in the interim analysis.

Status:

On November 23rd, 2020 AstraZeneca announced that the vaccine is 90 percent effective in preventing COVID-19. The Data Safety Monitoring Board determined that the analysis met its primary endpoint, showing protection from COVID-19 occurring 14 days or more after receiving two doses of the vaccine. AZD1222 was well tolerated across both dosing regimens. It is now FDA approved and being successfully rolled out and applied in the UK, European Union, Argentina, India and other countries. 

JOHNSON & JOHNSON

Name
JNJ-78436735
Who:

One of the world’s largest multinational corporations, based in New Jersey, specializing in healthcare and pharmaceutical products.

What:

On January 29th, 2021 Johnson & Johnson announced the results of its phase 3 ENSEMBLE trials, which showed that this single-dose vector vaccine is 66 percent effective overall at preventing COVID-19.

Status:

Not yet approved for use. But Johnson & Johnson have filed for an emergency use authorization in the U.S. An FDA meeting is scheduled for February 26th and a decision could follow shortly afterwards. Johnson & Johnson expects to start shipping doses as soon as it is authorized.

NOVAVAX

Name
NVX-CoV2373
Who:

 A biotechnology company based in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

What:

A protein vaccine that involves a nanoparticle carrier to better aid delivery and uptake by cells. The vaccine is administered in two doses, 21 days apart.

Status:

Not yet approved for use. But a rolling review of this vaccine with multiple regulatory authorities, including in the U.S., U.K., European Union, and Canada, began on February 4th, 2021. Approval could be granted as soon as April. 

GAMALEYA

Name
Sputnik 5
Who:

A Russian research institution, in partnership with the state-run Russian Direct Investment Fund.

What:

A viral vector vaccine that uses two strains of adenovirus and requires a second injection after 21 days to boost the immune response.

Status:

In August 2020, Russia cleared the Sputnik V vaccine for widespread use and claimed it as the first registered COVID-19 vaccine on the market, even though the vaccine’s phase 3 trials hadn’t even begun.

Subsequently, phase 3 trials have now been completed in Moscow. The Lancet reported on February 2nd that the Sputnik V vaccine was found to be safe and 91.6 percent effective in preventing COVID-19. The study, which involved more than 22,000 participants, also showed the vaccine is 100 percent effective in preventing moderate or severe cases of the disease. It has now been approved in Belarus, Argentina, Venezuela, and other countries.

 

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations

The economy

-7.2%

Europe

-2.6%

Africa (Contintent)

-4.3%

United States

-3.3%

Developing countries

-4.4%

World

+1.9%

China

GDP growth annual (2020) per selected region.

Source: IMF World Data
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GDP (gross domestic product) is most commonly used to measure a region's overall economic activity over a specified time period, one year for example.
See how COVID-19 affects the worldwide economy.

The Economy

Global economic
indicators

It’s hard to navigate every twist and turn of the $90 trillion global economy. To help, Bloomberg created a real-time dashboard of key economic indicators from every corner of the world. Selected by their economics team and updated as new statistics are released, it will provide insight on the strength or softness of expansions and recessions.
Click the image below to open the Dashboard (on Bloomberg.com).

Bloomberg

gdp growth

To contain the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries locked down hard in the first half of 2020. The result was massive contracted economic activity on a global scale. But with the tentative reopening of many economies during May and June came a gradual recovery.

Although, the easing of lockdowns can lead to a partial bounce back, economic activity is likely to remain subdued until health risks abate. And while the swift economic recovery in China has taken many people by surprise, it seems the global economy has an awful long way to go before reaching the levels of pre-pandemic days.

See the global GDP change during 2020 below.

INFLATION RATE, AVERAGE
CONSUMER PRICES

The CPI measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, commonly known as inflation. Essentially, it attempts to quantify the aggregate price level in an economy and thus measure the purchasing power of a country's unit of currency.  The spread of COVID-19 has led to sweeping changes in the way households work, spend their time and shop. Unsurprisingly, large changes in spending patterns have occurred and, in some cases, prices have rapidly changed.

You can track the inflation rate per country below.

Among the countries with available GDP data, there is no evidence of a trade-off between protecting people’s health and protecting the economy. Rather, the relationship we see between the health and economic impacts of the pandemic goes in the opposite direction. As well as saving lives, countries controlling the outbreak effectively may have also adopted the best economic strategy.